Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.